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The First World War: Will There Be Light?

Updated: May 7, 2020

By Anchal Jain

1. This “Black Swan Event” is comparable to the one that happened a century ago, the First World War. A study of the outcomes of that event helps us in making some sense of what is happening today.

2. The First War was also accompanied by another equally devastating event, the “Spanish Flu”. The Flu went largely unnoticed by millions around the world thanks to censorship at that time. The war hid the pandemic, however the pandemic had a significant role to play in ending the war.

3. Today, we have some interesting parallels. The COVID-19 pandemic hides something else. Another event that actually already brought the global economy to the brink, the Trade war, especially the one raging between USA and China. My first conviction is that just as the Spanish flu helped bring an end to the first war, the COVID-19 will bring an end to the trade war!

4. But will this pave the way for economic revival and will it change anything for our industry? Or will it mean even more pain and hardship for us all?

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are Val-More’s views only. Anchal is neither an economist nor an astrologer. However, besides having an ability to connect future dots, he is an eternal optimist always looking at the positives in human behavior in any difficult moment to come out stronger. Special mention of Manoj Kumar and Geetanjali Rastogi from the Val-More partner team for their contribution and challenges.

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